NXTER.ORG

Nxt Market Report 220414

By lightspeed

Current market depth (BTER):

Bids: 0.29 Million NXT
Asks: 0.24 Million NXT

Prognosis: April’s price profile has continued its slow bleed and we may now re-test the mid-march low of 4100. The month’s trading so far has been characterised by many small trades interspersed with some very large buy-ins which, in a few cases, moved the price a full 500 NxT in a single trade. In the absence of any other news, the current trend would be expected to continue, however, it’s the ‘any other news’ bit that will form the theme of this report.

Reach on BTER at the moment: (Averages in brackets)

10,000 NXT = 4800 (4799) Satoshis
50,000 NXT = 4900 (4877)
100,000 NXT = 4900 (4888)
200,000 NXT = 4897 (4998)
500,000 NXT = 5000 (4958)

Meanwhile, a 500,000 cashout right now would take us straight to 3000. So good liquidity on the buy side (there is currently someone waiting to get 255,000 offloaded @ 5000 Satoshis  ) but not so great if your checking out.

*************************************************************************

ENGINEERS vs ECONOMISTS
– and BLOCK 76000

Before reading on, I’d like readers to ask themselves this question: What does “Block 76000” in the NxT testnet blockchain mean to you ?

If the answer is ‘nothing’ then you’re possibly in the ‘economists’ trading category from the perspective of today’s report. If the answer is ‘something’ then you’re more likely in the engineer’s category. Hopefully, knowing which group you fall into will help you decide if you’ve over or under valued your investment and interpret the report accordingly.

If you ask an engineer for a description of an aeroplane, they’ll likely say something like “a flying machine”. On the other hand, if you ask an economist, they’re more likely to answer “an expensive asset”.

These two perspectives on the same object come from disciplines which are inherently independent and yet they form complimentary accounts such that without either, we don’t have the full picture as far as an investment proposal is concerned. It’s not enough for an airline to know that the ‘flying machine’ works and can get its customers to the correct location for sipping their ‘Bahama Mama’s’, they also have to know how much it will cost them.

Conversely, there’s not much point in knowing the price of something without also knowing what it is you’re buying. Imagine a supermarket where all the shelves only had prices and no products. You’d need a strategy to infer the nature of the product from its price. So maybe you only buy the expensive stuff because that must be the ‘good stuff’. You then checkout only to find you’ll be feeding your family of 5 this month on a couple of organic smoked salmon, 15 tins of fois gras and a few bottles of champagne followed by 3 weeks of starvation.

When the engineer’s and the economist’s views are in balance, we have a correct valuation for the asset. In other words, the market has full information about both the cost and potential revenue of that asset. When these views are out of balance, we have a miss-valuation. i.e. the market is trading without full knowledge of the asset’s properties and our view is distorted in either the economist’s or the engineer’s direction. (We are either looking at the price only without knowing what the asset is or we are only looking at the function without knowing the price).

WHAT HAS THIS GOT TO DO WITH NxT ?

During the last few weeks, some strange trading patterns have appeared. Firstly there is a background ‘noise’ of very slow price decay over lots of sub-10,000 NxT trades. However, superimposed on this are 2 distinct categories of trade observed having very different behaviours:

[1] – some very large, almost desperate looking, buy-ins which temporarily pushed the price up by about a months worth of ‘background noise’ at a time

[2] – some very large and equally desperate looking cashouts

TESTNET BLOCK 76000

As a background to all this, there is some industrious and highly strategic activity going on by the developers of the NxT network services.

About an hour prior to the writing of this report, we passed block 76000 on “testnet” (NxT’s auxiliary ‘offline’ blockchain used for testing new technology). This is possibly the most significant single event to have occurred in the evolution of the network since launch because it signifies the blockchain’s asset publishing service going live for testing purposes. For this to have been achieved, many challenges have been faced and solved by the developers including the implementation of new server side and client side technologies which will now start undergoing some heavy testing. Block 76000 therefore probably represents the point at which NxT reached its highest ever utility value as a technology and whoever the trader was that cashed out 11553 NxT right at that point at a multi-week low price of 4322 deserves my thanks since it was them that provided the inspiration for this week’s report.

On the face of it, therefore, the 2 categories of trading above would appear to follow the distinct and contrary profiles of the “2 sides” of this coin:

a) – engineer’s category: traders who are following its technical evolution and ‘buying in’ as it attains an ever higher utility value

b) – economist’s category: traders who are following its price evolution only and ‘selling out’ based on the decaying market valuation

THE PARALLAX VIEW (Apologies to Warren Beaty)

As we observed earlier, both the engineer’s and economist’s view are relevant and in fact essential in forming an appropriate valuation. But when one is out of balance with the other, we either have airliners with no price tag or supermarket shelves with no product description. In the case of NxT’s valuation, Market Report notes that one of these views is plastered over every cryptocurrency exchange, graph, ticker and forum on the internet, while the other is buried away where only interested parties care to roam (and still have to do some digging at that). In fact, you have to go to an obscure forum, 11th down from the News and Announcements section on nxtforum.org in the ‘Technical Discussion’ section called ‘Testnet’ to find this:

This major imbalance in the two sources of information in the view of your humble commentator is likely to cause a distortion in the price valuation of the NxT technology – a kind of ‘parallax’ which may account for the bi-directional spikey trading behaviour we’re seeing. (Exemplified by our friend who dumped their 11553 NxT at the precise moment of highest value and lowest price).

Finally, just in case you haven’t yet guessed by now which is the under-stated view then here’s some stuff I’d like to sell you ! 

Usual health warnings apply. In the meantime, as always..

Happy trading !

p.s. countdown to the ‘live network’ asset exchange launching is here: http://www.nxtcommunity.org/

advarsel

HEALTH WARNING
lightspeed is an amateur trader – in fact barely past “beginner”. The purpose of this commentary is to generate discourse with what I’ve learned so far about NXT and trading to other “beginners” If your a “pro” just make sure you take your own advice and not mine !!

Donations to lightspeed / Nxt Marked Report: Nxt acc. 13411915496268579987

Original post on nextcoin.org forum:
https://nextcoin.org/index.php/topic,4467.msg43366.html#msg43366

Nxt Market Report 080414

By lightspeed.

Market Depth (BTER):

Bids: 0.24 Million NXT
Asks: 0.28 Million NXT

Time for quick interim update as we pass the midpoint of ‘stability week’ as anticipated by last week’s report.

At the time of writing, the 4 hour MACD is just crossing over to the upside helped along by a brief gust of buys that rustled through the order book in the last hour taking out the low hanging fruit on the ask side to the tune of around 80k NXT at ~6240.

This has consolidated the week’s relaxed, undulating but regular pattern and is helping to bake in the 6000 level following the buffeting we got in the wake of the big bounce off the 5000 support.

With the longer range indicators having all made a fairly greased-on rendezvous with the horizontal plane, they are now in the hangar for the night and void of much useful signal. The 4 Hr however still offers some radar returns and the story they tell is one of gentle consolidation for the remainder of the week with a possible exploratory excursion to the upper reaches of the 6100 to 6500 range. That’s about as ambitious as it looks like getting folks but no bad thing if it means an equal shoring up of the support.

The other benefit you get from this state of affairs is good liquidity in both directions, so traders looking to exploit the small variations that do appear will now have more chance to do so than they did with the big spreads we had of the previous 2 weeks.

Reaches for tonight are as follows (Averages in brackets):

Buying :

10,000 NXT = 6247 (6245) Satoshis
50,000 NXT = 6297 (6261)
100,000 NXT = 6300 (6280)
200,000 NXT = 6555 (6375)
500,000 NXT = 6887 (6596)

A 500,000 cashout tonight would take us down 600 to 5560 while a 500,000 buy would take us up 700, so order book is slightly firmer on the buys around current price.

Bitcoin meanwhile is doing its bouncing bomb impersonation and it’s anyone’s guess if it’s going to bust any dams in the next few days. Luckily we are receiving the protection of a de-coupled market for now so lets be happy for small mercies 

Happy trading !

Donations to lightspeed / Nxt Marked Report: Nxt acc. 13411915496268579987

Original post on nextcoin.org forum:
https://nextcoin.org/index.php/topic,4467.msg42837.html#msg42837

Create your own NXT client

By lightspeed.

Here’s an experiment for those of you with a modicum of curiosity, 3 minutes to spare and a working knowledge of wordpad, notepad or textEdit (on Mac).

Copy this 40 line code snippet and paste it into a text editor. Save the document to disk with a “html” extension (i.e. either just save it as text and manually change the extension to “.html” or save it as “my-nxt-client.html”).

<html>
<head>
<title>My NXT Client Example</title>
<script language=”Javascript”>
function xmlhttpPost(strURL) {
var xmlHttpReq = false;
var self = this;

self.xmlHttpReq = new XMLHttpRequest();
self.xmlHttpReq.open(‘POST’, strURL, true);
self.xmlHttpReq.setRequestHeader(‘Content-Type’, ‘application/x-www-form-urlencoded’);
self.xmlHttpReq.onreadystatechange = function() {
if (self.xmlHttpReq.readyState == 4) {
updatepage(self.xmlHttpReq.responseText);
}
}
self.xmlHttpReq.send(getquerystring());
}

function getquerystring() {
var form     = document.forms[‘f1’];
var nxtaccount = form.nxtaccount.value;

//************* Here’s the call to the NXT API: *************
//
qstr = ‘requestType=getBalance&account=’ + escape(nxtaccount);
//
//************* That wasn’t too hard was it ? *************
//
// When you’re done with that you can try this one:
//
//  qstr = ‘requestType=getAccountTransactionIds&account=’ + escape(nxtaccount)+’&timestamp=0′;

return qstr;
}

function updatepage(str){
document.getElementById(“result”).innerHTML = str;
}
</script>
</head>
<body>
<form name=”f1″>
<p>NXT Account ? <input name=”nxtaccount” type=”text”>
<input value=”Go” type=”button” onclick=’JavaScript:xmlhttpPost(“http://nxtra.org:7874/nxt”)’></p>
<div id=”result”></div>
</form>
</body>
</html>

Please note that http://nxtra.org now redirects to nxt.org. Use you own node, and also: never send your passphrase to any public node)

Open the document in a web browser (just double-click on it or, alternatively, go to the FILE menu and choose open file). If you see a form, enter a NXT account number and click the “Go” button.

If this worked for you, you’ve just created your own NXT client that uses the NXT high level API ! (Application Programming Interface) (Your balance will be out by 2 decimals but just ignore that, it’s for true geeks to worry about).

Now have a look at this page and see all the other stuff you can do just by replacing the command “getBalance” in that little NXT client you ‘wrote’. http://nxtwiki.org/wiki/The_Nxt_API#Asset_exchange_operations

Read the full article, Nxt Marked Report 020414: http://nxter.org/nxt-market-report-020414/

or here (original post on nextcoin.org forum):
https://nextcoin.org/index.php/topic,4467.msg42612.html#msg42612  (404 link removed)

Donations to lightspeed / Nxt Market Report: Nxt acc. 13411915496268579987

Nxt Market Report 020414

By lightspeed.

April 2nd 2014:

What is ‘Network Effect’ ?

Current market depth (BTER):

Bids: 0.6 Million NXT
Asks: 0.56 Million NXT

Prognosis: The NXT valuation is settling for now around 6000 Satoshis on a moderate upward trend. This looks to be a more stable situation with less volatility than a couple of weeks ago. Two observations which would appear to support this are:

[1] – the previous heavily lopsided market depth has substantially balanced itself up around a price of 6200, suggesting that the bulk of the big sellers wanting out for the moment are now out and the bulk of those wanting in are now in. These are reflected in the moderate trading reach figures in both directions below

[2] – the very long range 12hr MACD turned positive around March 31st while the 4 hr remains in a stable upward if slightly converging trend, suggesting that we might have up to a week of stable prices ahead in the 6-7 range (an eternity in crypto-markets).

Reach on BTER at the moment:

10,000 NXT = 6380 (5894) Satoshis
50,000 NXT = 6380 (5996)
100,000 NXT = 6760 (6084)
200,000 NXT = 6925 (6615)
500,000 NXT = 7483 (6615)

Meanwhile, a 500,000 cashout right now would take us to 5702.

DO TRY THIS AT HOME

Here’s an experiment for those of you with a modicum of curiosity, 3 minutes to spare and a working knowledge of wordpad, notepad or textEdit (on Mac).

Copy the 40 line code snippet from [http://nxter.org/create-your-own-nxt-client-experiment] and paste it into a text editor. Save the document to disk with a “html” extension (i.e. either just save it as text and manually change the extension to “.html” or save it as “my-nxt-client.html”).

Open the document in a web browser (just double-click on it or, alternatively, go to the FILE menu and choose open file). If you see a form, enter a NXT account number and click the “Go” button.

If this worked for you, you’ve just created your own NXT client that uses the NXT high level API ! (Application Programming Interface) (Your balance will be out by 2 decimals but just ignore that, it’s for true geeks to worry about).

Now have a look at this page and see all the other stuff you can do just by replacing the command “getBalance” in that little NXT client you ‘wrote’. http://nxtwiki.org/wiki/The_Nxt_API#Asset_exchange_operations

Now part 2 of the experiment (Everyone can do this bit) answer a few questions with a “yes” or “no”:

[1] – did you do the test (1 point for yes)
[2] – did you know you could do this with NXT ? (1 point for no)
[3] – did you know you could do other things in this way like create aliases and issue assets ? (1 point for no)
[4] – are you likely to discuss the NXT project further with anyone else after seeing the example ? (1 point for yes)

If even 1 in 10 readers scored at least 1 point out of 4, then you’ve just added to the favourable “network effect” for NXT.

Network effect is the gold dust of cryptocurrencies and is what more than anything affects the valuation. However, as your eclectic correspondent sees it, there are 2 distinct types of network effect in play and we are rapidly approaching a point in the history of NXT where one diverges from the other.

PRIMARY NETWORK EFFECT

This is where people are interested in the intrinsic nature of the “coin” itself. For example, its name , technical characteristics, its popular following, its price, logo and gorgeous website. Primary network effect clearly has a limited lifetime because all these things have one quality in common – ** novelty **. We can basically sum up primary network effect therefore as ‘novelty value’.

SECONDARY NETWORK EFFECT

This is where people are not interested in the “coin” itself but in something else completely. However, that “something else” happens to have a favourable dependency on the coin or infrastructure such that it supports its value as long as the “something else” is in demand. The obvious one is currency. If you go to a kid’s funfair and they use those plastic chips that you buy at a kiosk to get on the rides, you’ll pay 100 times more for its monetary value than you will for its utility value in the hardware shop. Nothing to do with intrinsic value of plastic chips -it’s exactly the same plastic token- and everything to do with their network effect in the ‘funfair economy’. You need the “chip” to get the ride.

The problem for 1st generation “coins” is that in the absence of monetary deployment, there is no secondary network effect. All that remains is a residual speculative value based on potential use as a future currency. The obvious secondary network effect for “2nd gens” like NXT, however, is services and we are at last starting to see evidence of this in the trading technicals.

The other day I was idly mulling the 12 hr chart for doge and smugly patting myself on the back for not having invested when to my horror, I realised something quite startling. NXT was tracking Doge with a perfect 4 day delay like a bloodhound on the trail of an injured rabbit. Then, equally as profoundly, around the 17th of March the two profiles start to de-couple. All this time I had been thinking that NxT’s valuation was so different from other coins – prospect of 2nd generation services, new source, proof of stake etc when in fact we’ve actually just been riding the same “novelty wave” as every other coin !

What this also means however, is that we are now entering an important 2nd phase. The de-coupling, if true, means that from now on NxT’s valuation will be much more dependent on dry, boring secondary network effects like that of the little technical demo at the start of this report. To illustrate this, in the graphic below, I’ve superimposed the NXT 12 hour chart from Bitcoinwisdom on top of DOGE’s 12 hour but with a 4 day displacement. Up to the 15th March it’s almost a perfect fit but with the impending launch of NXT asset exchange we are seeing the beginnings of a de-coupling from that early unsustainable “novelty coin” profile.

If NXT can reach escape velocity and leave the gravity sphere of that diminishing primary network effect then it will be one of the first crypto currency projects to do so since Litecoin. Even the greats like Peercoin and Primecoin are struggling to manage it. It’s important therefore that the focus now shift from “this is a great coin because it’s x-y-z POS great community mumbo jumbo” type promotion to much more practical priorities like “I’m going to distribute my software licenses on the NXT network”. Screaming about how great NXT is on Bitcointalk will no longer have the same effectiveness as we are “out of the novelty zone” and new projects have arrived to take its place. We must now fully embrace the next phase and look for, create and promote genuine secondary network effect for the NXT network.

Here’s an example of why this might just succeed. You can see from the little client-demo above how easy it is to write applications which access NXT services like the NXT asset exchange. What you might not be aware of is that it will cost you 1000 NXT to actually publish an asset !

This has quite profound implications because it means that the project effectively has a business plan. Not only is there a service that can be charged for but it can only be *paid for* in NXT. So it delivers a double positive to the valuation: utility value + monetary value.

This is a clear and unambiguous secondary network effect.

ALGO WARS

I’ll finish with just a brief mention of a recent development that I think will have a big impact on NXT in the near future. There was a significant event recently where a well known figure of the Bitcoin tech-head circles carried out a campaign of extortion against the Auroracoin development team, threatening to deploy an army of botnets at his disposal to attack the coin via an expoit he had discovered in the Kimoto Gravity Well algorithm for accelerated difficulty adjustment.

The threat was considered serious because of the relatively low level of hashing (mining) power available to that coin at the time and the individual succeeded in having his conditions met – which were that the development team publicly acknowledge the exploit and impliment a fix.

Whatever the ethics of this whole episode, it has succeeded in catapulting the relative benefits of proof of stake coins into the spotlight in a very big way. There has even been speculation around the safety of all POW coins except for Bitcoin and Litecoin which have elephantine amounts of hashing power available to protect their networks. Add to that the fact that it comes hard on the heels of “operation sh*coin cleanup” which is essentially a co-ordinated attack on proof of work coins by systematically mining them and selling them on exchanges for proof of stake ones.

So we can look forward to interesting times ahead. In this respect, note that Doge is NXT’s contemporary. We can therefore use it as a reference to measure how much secondary network effect is managing to propel us out of the ‘danger zone’.
Keep a close eye on that divergence pattern as a basis for future trading strategy. (Health warnings apply  ).

Happy trading !

*************************** STOP PRESS: ***************************

My sense of deja vu just blew a fuse. There’s just been a major melt-up of NxT over on BTER. After reporting that the market depth was nice & balanced, the whole order book got bought right up to nearly 9000 satoshi within an hour of filing this report rendering my earlier market depth report as obsolete as a dodo. I’d like to write something about metorites blowing a hole in the field of play, false sell walls, tides and swimming traders, but I think I’ll just refer you to March 22nd’s report which describes it perfectly !

It seems that around 1.6 million NXT have been bought over a period of 2 hours in 8 discrete trades. It’s not clear if it’s a single buyer, but given that it’s all on the one exchange and that the buyer didn’t seem overly desperate to optimise the trade over several exchanges, it seems likely.

They made their first move at around 20:30 UTC, scooping up around 700,000 NXT, pushing the price to 7300, roughly as predicted by the market depth analysis at the start of today’s report. They then held fire to allow liquidity to re-emerge at the lower levels before hoovering up another 220,000. This time liquidity was getting thin and they had to take it to 7500, with another 175,000 volley of buys following on 10 minutes later.

Finally, another 320,000 worth of asks was bulldozed through between 22:00 and 22:30 to round off the rally bringing the price to a five week high of 8936. Once again there’s now a gaping spread in the order book. It took days for the last one to ‘heel’ while traders struggled to decide which end of the gap was the “right one”. This one’s twice the size – the Grand Canyon springs to mind.

Meanwhile, NxT’s alter ego – Doge – went the other way and is nearly back at its last dead-cat-bounce level of 94, so there’s your divergence right there folks.

This will be interesting now. That was around a $56,000 (124 BTC) buy.

Does someone know something that I don’t or is this just a refugee from the Bitcoin crash with some loose change to play around with ?

*************************** STOP PRESS: ***************************

Donations to lightspeed / Nxt Marked Report: Nxt acc. 13411915496268579987

Nxt Market Report 240314

by lightspeed.

WARNING: As I’m filing this report, things are getting volitile again, but since the principles still apply I’m posting it. Please check up to date info for yourselves and stay informed. Someone (perhaps in the ‘category [1] below ?  ) has just checked out 1.2 million NXT, pushing the price back to 6 momentarily, but it’s now rebounded back to 6900 and bouncing around quite a bit.

Also, please see rramires post about the Vircurex situation here. https://nextcoin.org/index.php/topic,4511.0.html. The danger he’s referring to is that people decide to indulge in a bit of arbitrage by supplying the 23,000 NXT that’s in demand over there at 8200 and upwards, only to find they can’t get their money off the exchange to come and buy back on the BTER or DGEX markets. (Rather they might find themselves in the “Flights To Bejing” and “Where’s- my-Bitcoin” sign markets looking for a chinese guy that likes cappucinos).

Revised market depth on BTER (Mar 24th 20:15 UTC): 1 million NXT bid, 0.25 million NXT on offer.
****************************************************************************************

24th March 12:10 UTC – Reach for your “dead-reckoning” flightplan
****************************************************************************************
Before the age of satellites, when planes went out of beacon range and could no longer rely on ground-based navigational aids to fix their position (as in over Oceans), they grabbed a piece of paper known as the “dead-reckoning” flight plan. This is a form which has all the wind-corrected compass headings needed to reach the destination, including how much time should be spent on each heading. The great thing about this type of navigation is that no advanced technology is needed. Just a compass and a watch.

When market trends make a turnaround for the positive, there’s not much thinking to do except “get in!”. When it turns the other way however, several options present themselves based on what your priorities are as an investor. I’ll consider 3 of these here:

[1] Panic ! (Of which there are 2 subtypes: “Panic Sell” and “Panic hold”)

This is the option of choice for many crypto-traders. One reason that this particular strategy is so popular is that doesn’t require any depth of thought or market analysis and therefore is very efficient. Another reason is that it is the most likely to liberate people of their holdings so they can give up crypto trading altogether and get back to their daily lives. (In the flight analogy, this would be akin to making random turn when you go out of radar coverage. Where it differs slightly is that you might not get half the world’s air forces, navy’s, search & rescue services and satellite observation teams trying to recover your lost holdings).

[2] Trade on technicals

To decide on this I usually look at 2 things: a. – what do the charts say b. – what does trader sentiment say ?

According to the 4 hour Bitcoinwisdom trend, the current pattern is settling into a possible a 2-3 day correction, consistent with March 22nd’s market report. The ‘bottoms’ now look like being like potentially 6500 or failing that, 6000 where there is quite a strong support line. If you’re thinking of using this opportunity for accumulating some more NXT via a bit of shorting though, the question is can you do it without loosing your shirt ?.

Market depth says it will take 350,000 NXT in sales volume to get the price down to 6000 but only about 70,000 in buys to get it back up to 7400 at the time of writing. So if you’re trading small amounts like 2-3000 you might have a chance, but for large amounts there’s questionable liquidity to get out and back in safely without a bigger potential spread. Of course, those support lines could be pulled if all the orders are in the first category above. Also, things are moving quite quickly so by the time you read this those figures will have changed.

Regarding the “sentiment” factor, it can be useful to consult some key sources. If you were thinking Bloomberg, The BBC or even Coindesk – forget it. They’re too slow and sanitised. We need to look to the one place that always has the first and last say on all things crypto. These are the people that matter. The people who are spending millions of dollars on a minute to minute basis and who’s nerves are on a permanent knife edge. The people that have more authority on reporting Chinese Government policy than the Chinese government itself. If they say Bitcoin’s banned, it’s banned – doesn’t matter what the People’s Congress says. I’m speaking of course of “BTC-e Trollbox”.

Canvasing trollbox opinion on NXT is a simple matter of clicking this link: http://trollboxarchive.com/search.php?search_type=all&search=NXT

Weeding out the wheat from the chaff is a question of experience, but in general, few people post any positive opinions in there unless they’ve gone long in that market themselves. So in those cases there’s a likelihood that their money is where their mouth is. (On the other hand, negative opinions are, by comparison, as useful as a chocolate teapot).

What’s significant to me here is that we have 2nd-gen investors (one actually, but that’ll have to do for now) making favourable comparisons between NXT and other 2nd-gen coins. Meanwhile, on the negative side, the usually favoured “instamine scam bagholders crying now” type remarks are conspicuous by their absence. So that’s a recky worth at least 20 seconds of our research time that re-inforces the technical analysis for now.

[3] Trade on fundamentals

This is the pilot’s equivalent of the “Dead Reckning” flight plan. When you’ve lost all contact with ground based navigation aids (remember Sputnik hasn’t been launched yet), you just steer the course you worked out before you took off.

What that means for NXT is you get your calculator out and calculate your own personal valuation for your investment – based on factors for coin supply comparison with other cryptos, technological advantage, network effect etc. You then subtract the current price from your own valuation and decide if it’s over or under valued. Simple as that ! I’ve done this for myself but the detail is a bit beyond the scope of this post, so I might do that another day. Suffice to say, no pilot ever takes off without a dead-reckoning flight plan and no trader should ever take off without a calculator.

Happy trading and remember – if in doubt HODL !

P.S. One of the reasons that NXT discussion is a bit thin on the ground in my “trader sentiment” sources is that talking about NXT is banned in BTC-e trollbox, as is discussing any other currencies not on that exchange. So any remarks that do appear tend to be made by innocent bystanders rather than hardened spammers. In fact your erstwhile commentator has first hand experience of this and has since had to behave himself in order to get anywhere near that particular stream of crypto-currency consciousness.

advarsel

HEALTH WARNING
lightspeed is an amateur trader – in fact barely past “beginner”. The purpose of this commentary is to generate discourse with what I’ve learned so far about NXT and trading to other “beginners” If your a “pro” just make sure you take your own advice and not mine !!

Donations to lightspeed / Nxt Marked Report: Nxt acc. 13411915496268579987

Original post on nextcoin.org forum:
https://nextcoin.org/index.php/topic,4467.msg42063.html#msg42063

Nxt Market Report 220314

by lightspeed.

22nd March 11:00 UTC – A Bulldozer trying to cleanup a flowerbed !
***************************************************

Market depth for NXT has now turned very asymmetric to the upside.

There are currently 170 BTC worth of orders on BTER’s order book – all over 5000 SATs. There is only 27 BTC’s worth available (16%). In NXT terms, the shortage is even more pronounced (2.7 million in demand vs 0.33 million supply).

The breakdown for that supply is as follows:

~ 5 BTC’s worth available below 7500
~ 10 BTC’s worth available at 7500 – 8000
~ 41 BTC’s worth available at 8001 – 8500

Price is currently correcting from last night’s rally which almost took us to within 75 Satoshis of 8. According to technicals, it looks like we will correct for up to a day now. 2 potential bottoms present themselves:

~ 7000 – 7050 (If substantial resistance holds)
~ 6500 (The March 21st peak)

It will be interesting to see how this plays out once the sun comes up over Staten Island. Will Jenny Lopez put in a another panic buy like yesterday ? Or, on seeing the correction, will she pull her 518125 NXT order and do a one-man controlled demolition of the 7000 support line ? We’ll know in a couple of hours.

Remember, although this is a very bullish looking orderbook, the cryptocurrency markets are amongst the most fickle and volatile around. This picture can change in 24 hours if any panic sets in so trade carefully and remember the rule: IF EVER IN DOUBT, GO WITH YOUR LONG TERM OBJECTIVE. What that means is, if you are a long term investor, don’t do anything and always stay ‘parked’ in your NXT if not confident of your move. It’s better to miss out on a gain than take a loss.

Usual health warnings apply ! 

P.S. Thanks for the friendly fanmail. Enjoyed that over my coffee.

[UPDATE]

Quote from: blazedforever on March 22, 2014, 06:27:12 PM:

I want to know how you found the bter btc/nxt pair on bitcoin wisdom? Its not listed on the markets tab?

Hi blazed

I think I first became aware of it in an announcement on this very forum. This one here possibly…https://nextcoin.org/index.php/topic,4082.0.html

There’s also been some discussion on Bitcointalk about it… https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=490001.0

There are quite a few undocumented currency pairs. You just have to fiddle with the URL to discover them. For example, if you choose the Litecoin market on Cryptsy from the ‘official’ markets menu and then change “ltc” to “qrk” in the URL, you’ll get the Quark market.

The current “alt-coin shakeout” thats going on could be very good for NXT. It will get a higher profile once the deadwood is weeded out over the next few weeks and will possibly go on some new exchanges. BTC-e would be a stormer and I can’t see it not at least being a candidate given the small number of “2nd gens” that are around.


advarsel

HEALTH WARNING
lightspeed is an amateur trader – in fact barely past “beginner”. The purpose of this commentary is to generate discourse with what I’ve learned so far about NXT and trading to other “beginners” If your a “pro” just make sure you take your own advice and not mine !!

Donations to lightspeed / Nxt Marked Report: Nxt acc. 13411915496268579987

Original post on nextcoin.org forum:
https://nextcoin.org/index.php/topic,4467.msg41828.html#msg41828

Nxt Market Report 210314

by lightspeed.

March 21st 18:30 UTC – GOTCHA !! : Bullish Double Spike
********************************************************************

Some interesting and not so expected price action was seen this afternoon (morning if you are US side).

In particular, a double spike on the 5 minute wave starting around 15:30 UTC meant that if you’d been planning to jump off the train at 6200 Satoshis as last night’s price push was waning, you would have been beached as another secondary wave kicked in just as crossover to the downside on the short range signal line was occurring. The cryptocurrency trading gods sometimes spring that kind of surprise just to check we’re still awake.

NXT market report isn’t sufficiently informed to categorically explain the second push which took us nearly to 7 but notes that it occured just as the sun was completing its traverse across the Atlantic and striking the Eastern Seaboard of the United States. On the face of it, some nervous New Yorkers woke up expecting to see that we’d drifted back down to 55 (which was potentially on the cards when they went to bed), only to discover it had kept going causing them to panic and jump back on the train.

This brings me to a more general point regarding cryptocurrency trading – unlike stock markets, it’s characterised by the fact that trading goes on 24 hours a day. With lightspeed being a half Icelandic Scotsman living in Spain, I’ve often noticed that US dwelling traders are at a distinct disadvantage when significant events originate in China, but at an advantage when they originate in Europe. In other words, of the 3 big trading areas – Asia, Europe and US, it’s the one next door to the originating event that’s awake when it impacts on markets.

Prognosis for the rest of today and tomorrow:

Today’s double spike also manifests itself in the 4 hour chart and this caused an otherwise converging MACD to go parallel again, pointing to the upside, so we should be good for at least 6 for the time being. However liquidity on the ask side remains reasonably thick so I don’t expect any bullruns to 8 for now. Charts generally bullish but price seems likely correct now for the next few hours, possibly back to 66 where the main support starts. Following that, we need to see if another rally starts of if we go horizontal for a while. To me, everything says hold but please make your own minds up about that  

Today’s reaches are:

10,000 NXT: 6937 Satoshis
50,000 NXT: 6992
100,000 NXT: 7195
200,000 NXT: 7200
500,000 NXT: 7950

Donations to lightspeed / Nxt Market Report: Nxt acc. 13411915496268579987

Original post on nextcoin.org forum:
https://nextcoin.org/index.php/topic,4467.msg41780.html#msg41780 (404 link removed)

Nxt Market Report 200314

By lightspeed.

20th March. 14:30 UTC.

Well after yesterday’s report saying it would take “a few days”, the 12 hour MACD has now crossed and the 4hr indicates EMAcrossover and increasing MACD divergence to the upside.

This may be due to 3 factors:

[1] – the general minimum valuation has increased from 3 to 5000 satoshis.
[2] – the fact that NXT is “still around” and still looking promising
[3] – the impending launch of the NXT asset exchange

The turnaround hasn’t gone un-noticed by potential investors, as a predominance of 5-figure bids have appeared on the main exchanges with only around 20,000 ask liquidity remaining below 6 on BTER and DGEX and none on Cryptsy.

Arbitrage remains tight on all 3 main exchanges with Cryptsy slightly ahead on the price rise. Consequently, buy liquidity remains better on BTER and DGEX with no remaining 5-figure asks on Cryptsy now below 6750.

Reach for the following buys on BTER is as follows, with average price in brackets:

10,000 NXT = 5900 (5894) Satoshis
50,000 NXT = 6099 (5996)
100,000 NXT = 6100 (6084)
200,000 NXT = 7400 (6615)
500,000 NXT = 7400 (6615)

If the 2-million NXT whale’s plan was to increase liquidity in advance of a huge cashout, then it’s working. If it was to pick up some cheap NXT. Then it isn’t. So I still imagine it’s the former at the moment.

Quote from: JoshERTW:

Kicking myself the last week or two for not selling a pile at the last 9-10 peak… Would have been really nice to buy back in at 4-5…

Ah !  Don’t worry. You need NXT Market Report’s “GOFS” (Gain Optimisation Failure Syndrome) Counciling Service to make you feel better. Here’s your first session:

[1] – just remember that although it’s beautifully simple to look at a retrospective graph which plain-sailing peaks then smoothly drops and bounces like a beachball, it only recently became visible and was not visible when you were in a position to do anything about it

[2] – even if you had made the right decisions, if you were trading any significant amount (5 to 6 figure sums) then you would have had to push the price down to get out and up to get back in, so you would have had to be certain of at least a healthy 2000 satoshi spread between your exit and re-entry price. That certainty was by no means present at the 9000 SAT time because from DGEX’s front page graph, the drop looked like bouncing at the least 7 or 8, not 5

[3] – unless you are an A1, nerves of steel, market leading trader, you probably wouldn’t have been able to optimise your re-entry point anyway and would have been panicked into getting back in at a higher level. For example during the “malleability” episode of Bitcoin, NXT was jolted out of its descent and took a sharp turn to the upside. If you had been actively trading (as you apparently wish you had been) you might have sold at 8261 (it’s steepest drop day) and bought back in a panic at 8826 on February 25th (“malliability” day), loosing 7% of your NXT. As it was, you held and didn’t loose anything.

You also might have bought back in on the March 10th level off at 7355, being consistent with the expected bounce according to the DGEX wallpaper (in fact below it) and having to push the price back up to 7600 to get back in. So your spread would only have been about 1500 NXT even if you’d timed it well although your nerves would have been somewhat frayed

[4] – you had a life for 3 weeks. You didn’t have to spend it pouring over your PC (or Mac) at 4 in the morning checking the 4 and 1 hour MACD’s, the 15 minute wave, MA’s, EMA’s, entry & exit spreads and trading reaches. Your (metaphorical) kids didn’t start hating you for interrupting their bedtime storys 3 times a night to check the NXT price and your wife’s not divorcing you (at least not for spending so much time on cryptocurrency exchanges that you forgot to switch the gas off the potatoes and now have a watery puree for dinner)

In fact, congratulate yourself on achieving 2 out of 3 in the trading exam !

[1] = loosing
[2] = not loosing
[3] = gaining

Hope that helps !  

[UPDATE]:

Quote from: Nexxie on March 20, 2014, 08:58:17 PM:

Kick ass commentary  
Which website do you use for the technical analysis?

Hi Nexxie

Glad you and others found my ramblings of interest although be advised they are those of a bona fide amateur so don’t go re-mortgaging your home based on them.

I use Bitcoinwisdom. A truly stunning piece of technology in its own right.   https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/bter/nxtbtc

EDIT: Oops ! NXT already halfway to 7. Market report already out of date. Just another quick comment on this:

FOLKS: Note that NXT is one of the few crypto’s that easily de-couples from Bitcoin’s price tracking. Right now (19:00 UTC) is a great illustration of this if you have a quick look at the marketcap list: http://coinmarketcap.com/

Also, note Mastercoin – one of BTC’s main competitors in the “2nd generation” department. Although I find Mastercoin interesting and definitely do not believe in “dissing” other projects – they are all investable – it has 2 particular characteristics that are significantly different from NXT. One is technological and the other economic:

[1] – it uses Bitcoin’s blockchain, so the ‘tier-2’ service evolution cannot be co-ordinated with the blockchain evolution as well as with NXT which has its own blockchain

[2] – it follows from (1) that its price is always going to be closely coupled with Bitcoin’s (This can be both a good and bad thing, I’m just noting it that’s all).

Today, these 2 points have created a ‘perfect storm’ for the NXT-Mastercoin price differential spread: a full 30%. This has the very interesting  promotional side-effect of acting as a “beacon” and pulling new investors in whenever Bitcoin’s in trouble price ways. Lets see to what extent the reverse is true (or otherwise) when BTC has its next hike  

advarsel

HEALTH WARNING
lightspeed is an amateur trader – in fact barely past “beginner”. The purpose of this commentary is to generate discourse with what I’ve learned so far about NXT and trading to other “beginners” If your a “pro” just make sure you take your own advice and not mine !!

Donations to lightspeed / Nxt Marked Report: Nxt acc. 13411915496268579987

Original post on nextcoin.org forum:
https://nextcoin.org/index.php/topic,4467.msg41607.html#msg41607

Nxt Market Report 190314

by lightspeed.

Hello

Just back from the markets doing a bit of a recky for NXT.

Since things are at a low ebb, I decided to get in at around 5080, but there were no takers for a couple of hours. On checking Bitcoinwisdom, the 4 hour MACD crossed over on the 18th March so I reckoned it was safe enough. The 12 hour looks like being only days away from crossing over but the histogram is already putting in clear blocks so I decided it woudn’t dip that much over the next few days.

There was some jostling for position around 5180 for the chunks of meat that were floating around at 5200 – a 10,000 Nxt and a couple of 4’s.

Then there’s that 2 million NXT order at 5. Whenever I see something like that I always think it’s actually someone trying to get out and they’ve got plenty of extra BTC to place a fake buy wall and push the price up towards their sell. Then again, it could be genuine but I somehow doubt it.

Left some BTC on the exchange for when the next big announcement is made – index fingers are getting twitchy over mouse buttons now because liquidity is always a worry when sentiment reverses and before you know it you’re clamouring to get in at 8 when the market turned around at 4 or 5.

Donations to lightspeed / Nxt Marked Report: Nxt acc. 13411915496268579987

Original post on nextcoin.org: https://nextcoin.org/index.php/topic,4467.msg41546.html#msg41546