Nxt Market Report 200314

By lightspeed.

20th March. 14:30 UTC.

Well after yesterday’s report saying it would take “a few days”, the 12 hour MACD has now crossed and the 4hr indicates EMAcrossover and increasing MACD divergence to the upside.

This may be due to 3 factors:

[1] – the general minimum valuation has increased from 3 to 5000 satoshis.
[2] – the fact that NXT is “still around” and still looking promising
[3] – the impending launch of the NXT asset exchange

The turnaround hasn’t gone un-noticed by potential investors, as a predominance of 5-figure bids have appeared on the main exchanges with only around 20,000 ask liquidity remaining below 6 on BTER and DGEX and none on Cryptsy.

Arbitrage remains tight on all 3 main exchanges with Cryptsy slightly ahead on the price rise. Consequently, buy liquidity remains better on BTER and DGEX with no remaining 5-figure asks on Cryptsy now below 6750.

Reach for the following buys on BTER is as follows, with average price in brackets:

10,000 NXT = 5900 (5894) Satoshis
50,000 NXT = 6099 (5996)
100,000 NXT = 6100 (6084)
200,000 NXT = 7400 (6615)
500,000 NXT = 7400 (6615)

If the 2-million NXT whale’s plan was to increase liquidity in advance of a huge cashout, then it’s working. If it was to pick up some cheap NXT. Then it isn’t. So I still imagine it’s the former at the moment.

Quote from: JoshERTW:

Kicking myself the last week or two for not selling a pile at the last 9-10 peak… Would have been really nice to buy back in at 4-5…

Ah !  Don’t worry. You need NXT Market Report’s “GOFS” (Gain Optimisation Failure Syndrome) Counciling Service to make you feel better. Here’s your first session:

[1] – just remember that although it’s beautifully simple to look at a retrospective graph which plain-sailing peaks then smoothly drops and bounces like a beachball, it only recently became visible and was not visible when you were in a position to do anything about it

[2] – even if you had made the right decisions, if you were trading any significant amount (5 to 6 figure sums) then you would have had to push the price down to get out and up to get back in, so you would have had to be certain of at least a healthy 2000 satoshi spread between your exit and re-entry price. That certainty was by no means present at the 9000 SAT time because from DGEX’s front page graph, the drop looked like bouncing at the least 7 or 8, not 5

[3] – unless you are an A1, nerves of steel, market leading trader, you probably wouldn’t have been able to optimise your re-entry point anyway and would have been panicked into getting back in at a higher level. For example during the “malleability” episode of Bitcoin, NXT was jolted out of its descent and took a sharp turn to the upside. If you had been actively trading (as you apparently wish you had been) you might have sold at 8261 (it’s steepest drop day) and bought back in a panic at 8826 on February 25th (“malliability” day), loosing 7% of your NXT. As it was, you held and didn’t loose anything.

You also might have bought back in on the March 10th level off at 7355, being consistent with the expected bounce according to the DGEX wallpaper (in fact below it) and having to push the price back up to 7600 to get back in. So your spread would only have been about 1500 NXT even if you’d timed it well although your nerves would have been somewhat frayed

[4] – you had a life for 3 weeks. You didn’t have to spend it pouring over your PC (or Mac) at 4 in the morning checking the 4 and 1 hour MACD’s, the 15 minute wave, MA’s, EMA’s, entry & exit spreads and trading reaches. Your (metaphorical) kids didn’t start hating you for interrupting their bedtime storys 3 times a night to check the NXT price and your wife’s not divorcing you (at least not for spending so much time on cryptocurrency exchanges that you forgot to switch the gas off the potatoes and now have a watery puree for dinner)

In fact, congratulate yourself on achieving 2 out of 3 in the trading exam !

[1] = loosing
[2] = not loosing
[3] = gaining

Hope that helps !  

[UPDATE]:

Quote from: Nexxie on March 20, 2014, 08:58:17 PM:

Kick ass commentary  
Which website do you use for the technical analysis?

Hi Nexxie

Glad you and others found my ramblings of interest although be advised they are those of a bona fide amateur so don’t go re-mortgaging your home based on them.

I use Bitcoinwisdom. A truly stunning piece of technology in its own right.   https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/bter/nxtbtc

EDIT: Oops ! NXT already halfway to 7. Market report already out of date. Just another quick comment on this:

FOLKS: Note that NXT is one of the few crypto’s that easily de-couples from Bitcoin’s price tracking. Right now (19:00 UTC) is a great illustration of this if you have a quick look at the marketcap list: http://coinmarketcap.com/

Also, note Mastercoin – one of BTC’s main competitors in the “2nd generation” department. Although I find Mastercoin interesting and definitely do not believe in “dissing” other projects – they are all investable – it has 2 particular characteristics that are significantly different from NXT. One is technological and the other economic:

[1] – it uses Bitcoin’s blockchain, so the ‘tier-2’ service evolution cannot be co-ordinated with the blockchain evolution as well as with NXT which has its own blockchain

[2] – it follows from (1) that its price is always going to be closely coupled with Bitcoin’s (This can be both a good and bad thing, I’m just noting it that’s all).

Today, these 2 points have created a ‘perfect storm’ for the NXT-Mastercoin price differential spread: a full 30%. This has the very interesting  promotional side-effect of acting as a “beacon” and pulling new investors in whenever Bitcoin’s in trouble price ways. Lets see to what extent the reverse is true (or otherwise) when BTC has its next hike  
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