NXTER.ORG

Nxt Market Report 240314

by lightspeed.

WARNING: As I’m filing this report, things are getting volitile again, but since the principles still apply I’m posting it. Please check up to date info for yourselves and stay informed. Someone (perhaps in the ‘category [1] below ?  ) has just checked out 1.2 million NXT, pushing the price back to 6 momentarily, but it’s now rebounded back to 6900 and bouncing around quite a bit.

Also, please see rramires post about the Vircurex situation here. https://nextcoin.org/index.php/topic,4511.0.html. The danger he’s referring to is that people decide to indulge in a bit of arbitrage by supplying the 23,000 NXT that’s in demand over there at 8200 and upwards, only to find they can’t get their money off the exchange to come and buy back on the BTER or DGEX markets. (Rather they might find themselves in the “Flights To Bejing” and “Where’s- my-Bitcoin” sign markets looking for a chinese guy that likes cappucinos).

Revised market depth on BTER (Mar 24th 20:15 UTC): 1 million NXT bid, 0.25 million NXT on offer.
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24th March 12:10 UTC – Reach for your “dead-reckoning” flightplan
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Before the age of satellites, when planes went out of beacon range and could no longer rely on ground-based navigational aids to fix their position (as in over Oceans), they grabbed a piece of paper known as the “dead-reckoning” flight plan. This is a form which has all the wind-corrected compass headings needed to reach the destination, including how much time should be spent on each heading. The great thing about this type of navigation is that no advanced technology is needed. Just a compass and a watch.

When market trends make a turnaround for the positive, there’s not much thinking to do except “get in!”. When it turns the other way however, several options present themselves based on what your priorities are as an investor. I’ll consider 3 of these here:

[1] Panic ! (Of which there are 2 subtypes: “Panic Sell” and “Panic hold”)

This is the option of choice for many crypto-traders. One reason that this particular strategy is so popular is that doesn’t require any depth of thought or market analysis and therefore is very efficient. Another reason is that it is the most likely to liberate people of their holdings so they can give up crypto trading altogether and get back to their daily lives. (In the flight analogy, this would be akin to making random turn when you go out of radar coverage. Where it differs slightly is that you might not get half the world’s air forces, navy’s, search & rescue services and satellite observation teams trying to recover your lost holdings).

[2] Trade on technicals

To decide on this I usually look at 2 things: a. – what do the charts say b. – what does trader sentiment say ?

According to the 4 hour Bitcoinwisdom trend, the current pattern is settling into a possible a 2-3 day correction, consistent with March 22nd’s market report. The ‘bottoms’ now look like being like potentially 6500 or failing that, 6000 where there is quite a strong support line. If you’re thinking of using this opportunity for accumulating some more NXT via a bit of shorting though, the question is can you do it without loosing your shirt ?.

Market depth says it will take 350,000 NXT in sales volume to get the price down to 6000 but only about 70,000 in buys to get it back up to 7400 at the time of writing. So if you’re trading small amounts like 2-3000 you might have a chance, but for large amounts there’s questionable liquidity to get out and back in safely without a bigger potential spread. Of course, those support lines could be pulled if all the orders are in the first category above. Also, things are moving quite quickly so by the time you read this those figures will have changed.

Regarding the “sentiment” factor, it can be useful to consult some key sources. If you were thinking Bloomberg, The BBC or even Coindesk – forget it. They’re too slow and sanitised. We need to look to the one place that always has the first and last say on all things crypto. These are the people that matter. The people who are spending millions of dollars on a minute to minute basis and who’s nerves are on a permanent knife edge. The people that have more authority on reporting Chinese Government policy than the Chinese government itself. If they say Bitcoin’s banned, it’s banned – doesn’t matter what the People’s Congress says. I’m speaking of course of “BTC-e Trollbox”.

Canvasing trollbox opinion on NXT is a simple matter of clicking this link: http://trollboxarchive.com/search.php?search_type=all&search=NXT

Weeding out the wheat from the chaff is a question of experience, but in general, few people post any positive opinions in there unless they’ve gone long in that market themselves. So in those cases there’s a likelihood that their money is where their mouth is. (On the other hand, negative opinions are, by comparison, as useful as a chocolate teapot).

What’s significant to me here is that we have 2nd-gen investors (one actually, but that’ll have to do for now) making favourable comparisons between NXT and other 2nd-gen coins. Meanwhile, on the negative side, the usually favoured “instamine scam bagholders crying now” type remarks are conspicuous by their absence. So that’s a recky worth at least 20 seconds of our research time that re-inforces the technical analysis for now.

[3] Trade on fundamentals

This is the pilot’s equivalent of the “Dead Reckning” flight plan. When you’ve lost all contact with ground based navigation aids (remember Sputnik hasn’t been launched yet), you just steer the course you worked out before you took off.

What that means for NXT is you get your calculator out and calculate your own personal valuation for your investment – based on factors for coin supply comparison with other cryptos, technological advantage, network effect etc. You then subtract the current price from your own valuation and decide if it’s over or under valued. Simple as that ! I’ve done this for myself but the detail is a bit beyond the scope of this post, so I might do that another day. Suffice to say, no pilot ever takes off without a dead-reckoning flight plan and no trader should ever take off without a calculator.

Happy trading and remember – if in doubt HODL !

P.S. One of the reasons that NXT discussion is a bit thin on the ground in my “trader sentiment” sources is that talking about NXT is banned in BTC-e trollbox, as is discussing any other currencies not on that exchange. So any remarks that do appear tend to be made by innocent bystanders rather than hardened spammers. In fact your erstwhile commentator has first hand experience of this and has since had to behave himself in order to get anywhere near that particular stream of crypto-currency consciousness.

advarsel

HEALTH WARNING
lightspeed is an amateur trader – in fact barely past “beginner”. The purpose of this commentary is to generate discourse with what I’ve learned so far about NXT and trading to other “beginners” If your a “pro” just make sure you take your own advice and not mine !!

Donations to lightspeed / Nxt Marked Report: Nxt acc. 13411915496268579987

Original post on nextcoin.org forum:
https://nextcoin.org/index.php/topic,4467.msg42063.html#msg42063

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