NXTER.ORG

ARDOR – Where we came from. Where we are. Where we are going.

Recently a good friend of mine wrote the following post, and I thought you might enjoy reading it too. He is an investor. This post is about cryptocurrency price movements.


I’d like to explain in detail why I think we are on the threshold of yet another strong rebound.

BTC is the crypto this technical analysis will be based on because it is the largest cryptocurrency by volume, and the one that often pushes the movement of the rest.

Others like ETH, XRP, and ARDR will likely follow a similar pattern to BTC. What do you see in the following image?

There are four almost equal cycles showing a big explosion, followed by a correction, then a small rebound, and from there to a bearish movement. This pattern repeated in the BTC price chart in 2011, 2013, 2014 and 2018. We currently are at the position shown at the 4th chart in the lower right quadrant.

If we observe the charts in a continuous way, we will see that the first three cycles are almost inappreciable.

From this, we can draw several conclusions:

1. Each correction has been at least 70%, and 85% on average.

2. The longest correction period lasted 12 months. If we are currently on the 4th cycle, and December’s lows really were the bottom of the market, then the cycle would have already lasted 12 months. However, if new lows haven’t yet been made this would be the cycle with the longest correction. But it would most likely not be the one with the biggest drop since the first cycle caused a 93% drop.

3. Each new bullish expansive cycle goes over the previous highs at a 5x to 17x rate.

4. Trading is a world of recurring patterns reflecting investors’ sentiment. BTC is the one which best reflects these sentiments and patterns.

No matter if the price in December, 2018 was the bottom or not, what is more interesting for us is the projection of the price if the 5th wave has already started. If previous highs at $20,000 are surpassed, the expected price could go up to $100,000 – $340,000, more or less.

With this in mind, let’s have a look at the Technical Analysis. I’m not a big fan of relying on just these technical indicators, because the standard values of their algorithm might not belong or are not optimized for every single asset or time frame. For example, MACD 26-12-9 can’t be used to work on the EUR-USD chart or on the 60′ Nasdaq chart.

Every asset, every financial instrument has its own particular movement for longs and shorts swings. That’s the reason why I just use Technical Indicators to try to find market turns close to the bottom or the ceiling

Let’s have a look at the following chart:

This is a weekly Ardor price chart in dollars taken from Poloniex, with the help of Trading View. We can see that the price hit the bottom in December, 2018 (still needs to be confirmed), while the MACD indicator made a “fail”, i.e. the fast line (red) wasn’t able to cross the slow line (blue), at the time when new lows were reached (or with the closest candles). To me, this indicates a strong rebound is coming.

Notice the Fibonacci indicator (in blue) made 2 consecutive weekly break downs to the 23.6% level, and remained under that level but without reaching new lows. We looked into that and tried to find good entry points at charts with smaller time-frames.

On the daily chart it’s easy to see the degradation of the price drop, since while the price was reaching new lows, the MACD indicator was going higher and higher. This can happen 2, 3, 4 times or even more, but it’s a clear signal that the price drop is softening.

It would be rare that when we’ve had a “fail” in the weekly MACD and had broken the 23.6% level we wouldn’t have the chance to test the 61.8% without setting a new low before. Because a new low is still possible, but from what we’ve seen, if the lows of December aren’t the bottom, the new lows will only be reached for a short period of time.

Finally I had to make a decision, and I decided to open positions during January and February, 2019 at an average price of 1,528 satoshis. Recently the price has almost reached the first objective at 2,900 satoshis.

However, as can be seen in the above chart with the Fibonacci itineraries, the objectives are set at $0.10 and $0.20.

At that point, when two or more Fibonacci itineraries run into each other – specifically at the $0.20 level- we’ll be facing a dilemma. What shall I do? Shall I sell and make a x3.5 profit? Or shall I wait until BTC’s 5th wave takes its price to $100,000?

If that happened, ARDOR would easily go over $2.30 (its highest price ever) and could 5x that price, reaching $10-$12.

Is all of this crazy? No. People tend to think that today is different, but what is happening today has already happened 4 times before. Why wouldn’t this be the fifth one?

Maybe in 2-3 years, we will look back at the correction from the 5th wave and be waiting for the 6th wave to start, we will think it can not happen again.

Remember that patterns repeat over time and that human traders are the ones moving the price, even when high-frequency trading bots are around. These bots have been configured by humans to repeat the same patterns time after time.

Finally, my personal prediction, if BTC goes over $20,000:

  • –  BTC $100000-$340000
  • –  XRP $15-$60
  • –  ETH $7,000-$25,000
  • –  IOTA$30-$110
  • –  ARDOR $11-$40

See you!


Disclaimer Notice

This article is for general information only. It does not take into account the reader’s personal circumstances, objectives or attitude towards risk. It is not (and is not intended to be) any form of advice, recommendation, or endorsement by the author or the web site owner and should not be relied upon when making (or refraining from making) any investment decision.

Remember: the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent; investments can fall as well as rise in value and past performance is no indication of future performance.

NXT/BTC Up 117.60% on the Week

[fusion_builder_container hundred_percent=”no” equal_height_columns=”no” menu_anchor=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” class=”” id=”” background_color=”” background_image=”” background_position=”center center” background_repeat=”no-repeat” fade=”no” background_parallax=”none” parallax_speed=”0.3″ video_mp4=”” video_webm=”” video_ogv=”” video_url=”” video_aspect_ratio=”16:9″ video_loop=”yes” video_mute=”yes” overlay_color=”” overlay_opacity=”0.5″ video_preview_image=”” border_size=”” border_color=”” border_style=”solid” padding_top=”” padding_bottom=”” padding_left=”” padding_right=””][fusion_builder_row][fusion_builder_column type=”1_1″ layout=”1_1″ background_position=”left top” background_color=”” border_size=”” border_color=”” border_style=”solid” border_position=”all” spacing=”yes” background_image=”” background_repeat=”no-repeat” padding=”” margin_top=”0px” margin_bottom=”0px” class=”” id=”” animation_type=”” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_direction=”left” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” center_content=”no” last=”no” min_height=”” hover_type=”none” link=””][fusion_text]NXT is down -1.18% on the day, up 117.60% on the week and up 113.24% on the month on a last price of 0.00002770. NXT/BTC is trading between a 24hr high of 0.00003800 and a 24hr low of 0.00001981, in a weekly up trend.[/fusion_text][fusion_text]

Trend

trend is UP

Last price

0.00002770 NXT/BTC

$USD

last price $ 00.01750856
one week ago $ 00.00804635
percentage 117.60%

Price change

Price change is the percentage change within the period:

period change
day -1.18%
week 117.60%
month 113.24%

[/fusion_text][fusion_text]

Remarks

News
Nxt announces Ardor:
http://test.nxter.org/the-nxt-2-0-token-distribution/

“Ardor’s prime innovation is to split the blockchain into a main chain that is used for consensus creation only, and multiple child chains that keep separate ledgers of transactions, each child chain using its own coin/token.” 

Learn more
http://test.nxter.org/

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1518497.0

https://cointelegraph.com/news/ardor-new-competitor-to-ethereum-arises-amidst-reports-of-the-dao-attack

http://www.forbes.com/sites/rogeraitken/2016/06/21/nxt-crypto-blockchain-team-prepares-ardor-scalable-child-chain-platform/

[/fusion_text][fusion_text]

Market capitalization

Market capitalization is the total $US dollar value of the NXT market calculated using the formula: market cap = ( available supply x last price )

[/fusion_text][fusion_text]Market Cap
$ 17,491,051[/fusion_text][fusion_text]Available supply
998999999[/fusion_text][fusion_text]Last price
$ 00.01750856[/fusion_text][fusion_text]

Support

period support
day 0.00001981
week 0.00001200
biweekly 0.00000900
month 0.00000900

Support is the lowest price within the period.

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Resistance

period resistance
day 0.00003800
week 0.00003800
biweekly 0.00003800
month 0.00003800

Resistance is the highest price within the period.

[/fusion_text][fusion_text]

Chart

nxt-chart

Market sentiment

While the weekly trend is up and bullish, the profit taking sell-off is gaining momentum with the more recent trading sessions on a downturn. As a result the sentiment is considered “neutral”.

This report was printed on Monday June 27 2016 23:00 hours UTC.

Author: KittyBitcoin. Poloniex is the data source.
OP: http://allcoinsnews.com/2016/06/26/nxt-market-report-nxtbtc-up-117-60-on-the-week/

Contact KittyBitcoin to request custom reports.

Disclaimer

Past history is NOT an indicator of future results.
Read the legal disclaimer: http://kittybitcoin.com/docs/disclaimer.php

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Phase 4: A look at what’s coming

nxt-cryptocurrency-phase4

Group psychologists sometimes describe the dynamics of team formation and evolution in four stages, often dubbed Forming, Storming, Norming and Performing. Looking at the history of Nxt and its community, it’s certainly possible to divide it into three distinct parts, each of which is characterised by its own Zeitgeist – as well as the market’s reflection of that mood. It’s also valid to consider where we are now as being the end of one era and the beginning of the next, with its own challenges and opportunities: Phase 4.

Here’s what we’ve seen so far:

Phase 1: Forming

December 2013 – April 2014. Nxt launches. The market has no way of valuing the new 2.0 platform that promises much but has had no time to prove itself, or even implement many of the promised features. Like most alts, the price spikes – in this case about to around $100 million market cap. The hype inevitably fades, short-term traders exit and the new community forms from the wreckage.

Phase 2: Storming

April – August 2014. It’s a formative stage for Nxt. The community has become established, the Asset Exchange launches, and there is a huge amount of excitement and momentum. There are also an unprecedented number of scams. It’s a tumultuous time, but a case of too much, too soon; optimism evaporates, the bubble bursts and the community is left licking its wounds.

Phase 3: Norming

August 2014 – present. The SuperNET ICO brings a wave of optimism and activity, but over the next 14 months the protracted bear market saps confidence in Nxt (and all the alts) and sees its market cap shrink to less than a tenth of its high. However, behind the scenes there is a huge amount of positive activity, with dozens of new businesses and initiatives getting under way. The downtrend has the effect of funnelling money into the Asset Exchange, as holders seek either to sell or invest their NXT for a better return. Key relationships and reputations become well established. The community consolidates and collectively negotiates a set of tacit rules about how it will operate.

Phase 4: Performing

November 2015 onwards. Those who are going to leave have done so as the price collapses; those who are left have accumulated a larger share of NXT and built strong foundations for the future. A number of key business projects are well underway. The Nxt Foundation is well-established and the Tennessee project fully funded. There are good reasons for optimism.

However, here’s where it necessarily becomes more speculative, it’s always easier to describe the past than predict the future. There are many unknown factors in play. New 2.0 projects such as Ethereum are attracting attention, while the bear market across the alts continues. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is looking healthier than it has for a while, with more and more positive news – though still unresolved issues of its own. These factors will undoubtedly affect Nxt.

In addition, there are some interesting economic effects in play that are unique to Nxt. The bear market went hand-in-hand with an asset boom, arguably a bubble. At historically low prices but with optimism growing, minds are turning to accumulating as much NXT as possible. This naturally means selling assets as well as BTC and other cryptos. Thus there’s a chance that Phase 4 will kick off with an asset crash as traders and holders position themselves to go long on NXT, and that new assets will struggle for liquidity as a result. On the other hand, increasing interest from outside the core community might compensate for that, albeit with a time lag.

These are all issues that will no doubt work themselves out, one way or another and with a few more bumps along the way. What should be obvious at this point is that Year 3 and Phase 4 will be well worth sticking around for.

Nxt Market Report: 25 August 2014

Market Cap

Welcome to this week’s market report. It’s been another interesting week and we have plenty to write about. We start by having our usual look at the current market capitalizations. Since the last market report NXT has decreased in price by 6.5%. Additionally the trading volume, according to coinmarketcap, has been on a downtrend – it reached its high at about USD 100’000 (21 August) before shrinking to a daily average of about USD 40’000 during the last few days. The sharp fall in trading volume is explained by Bter’s hack last week as a result of which traders don’t trust Bter anymore and have either switched to a different exchange or to the Multigateway (which has experienced a considerable uptake in its use as a result of the hack). Moreover, Bter announced it would be charging a fee of 3% on all NXT withdrawals, which is understandable since Bter is still missing 4.5m NXT. There’s more detail regarding this story below. 

coinmarketcap 240814Source: coinmarketcap.com

UPDATE: Hack of Bter’s main account

A week ago Bter was still missing 8.3m NXT and even though it was an internal fault of the exchange, the NXT community nevertheless assisted Bter in any way it could, see this thread to read the whole discussion. Initially, as mentioned above, Bter announced an increased NXT withdrawal fee of 3%. This increase was intended not only to fill the 8.3m NXT hole but also to prevent a bank run! A number of different whales (users with a big stake in NXT) came up with proposals to smoothly restore the ‘old’ Bter, as a result of which the following agreement has been made: Bter is to provide a year of free NXT trading on its exchange in return for a loan of 2m NXT, enabling Bter to reduce the withdrawal fee to a  more reasonable 1%, albeit this is still double the old rate.

In another major development, Dom P, a well-known member at nxtforum.org, started a hunt for Bter’s hacker, which has already been successful: another chunk of the missing money has been recovered, some 3.8m NXT! Good news undoubtedly but this incident has clearly shown the downsides of centralized exchanges and the advantages in trading instead with the Multigateway.

Teleport: A new attempt to achieve privacy

Teleport is one of the many projects jl777 is working on. The goal is to make transactions off the blockchain so nobody is able to identify the user behind it. There are already different approaches by competitors like Darkcoin or Monero but jl777’s Teleport is a completely new one. Here’s how jl777 explains it:


Teleport is a different approach to privacy that seeks to use one of the very features of cryptocurrency networks that limit anonymity under normal circumstances: transaction linkage. Teleport occurs off the blockchain but is verified using the blockchain, utilising the benefits of a public record without suffering its drawbacks.
Teleport uses ‘telepods’ – packages of information containing everything required to make a transaction – to transfer funds securely and outside of the blockchain to the intended recipient.

jl777 is also core developer of BitcoinDark, with which he aims to make Teleport a reality. He explains it thus:

“Nxt Inside” is something I am reaching out to other coins to do. Each new coin with Nxt Inside is a totally new community that instantly becomes NXT users. Their coin gets the advantage of all the NXT 2.0 features, NXT gets more nodes and users for AE, Marketplace, InstantDEX, etc. The first step is to get the coin traded in MGW, then there is a direct reason for them to want reskinned NXT GUI. Maybe they strip out everything but the AE for their coin, or maybe they keep all of NXT. Doesn’t matter, it is all good as NXT is helping them by being a platform.

Now people are hesitant to be the first, so I make BTCD do this as example and then other coins will copy, especially if BTCD does well.

Advertised as “Nxt inside” jl777 aims to create a network of different coins using NXT as platform. This is huge since NXT will get lots of new users as well as publicity (also have a look at BitcoinDark’s price chart). Teleport is included in jl777’s asset NXTprivacy, something to consider investing in if you would like to be part of this story.

What’s going on in the Asset Exchange?

InstantDEX: InstantDEX is an asset managed by – who could it be? – jl777. The primary aim of InstantDEX is to offer realtime trading of NXT as well as Instant Transactions. In addition, InstantDEX will be a piece of the puzzle for Teleport, which is no doubt why it has experienced a doubling in price over the last week.

Nxttycoin: This coin is the official crypto currency of the Nxt Mobile Applications Company (NMAC), click this link to have a look at the announcement thread. The holders of Nxttycoins are understood to be the owners of NMAC. Nxttycoin is already listed on coinmarketcap and has an amazingly big community for an application which has not even launched yet (Facebook, Twitter). Over the last few weeks Nxttycoin’s value has increased by over 100%! As a bonus Nxttycoin has a reward program: on the last day of each month you receive an amount equalling 5% of your current holdings (Example: You hold 100’000 Nxttycoins. On the 31st of August you receive a reward of 5’000 Nxttycoins). The official launch date of the app is the 26 August 2014.

That’s it for the NXT market report this week; hope you enjoyed it!

This market report is for general information and news purposes only. It does not take into account the reader’s personal circumstances, objectives or attitude towards risk. It is not (and is not intended to be) any form of advice, recommendation, representation, or endorsement by the author or the web site owner and should not be relied upon when making (or refraining from making) any investment decision.

Nxt Market Report: 18 August 2014

Market Cap

Welcome to this week’s market report. We start by having a look at the current market capitalizations. Since the last market report NXT has decreased in price by 14.1%. The trading volume, much bigger than we have seen in the past few weeks,  reached a peak of USD 200’000 (12 August) but after the 15 August, when the popular NXT exchange Bter.com got hacked, the volume drastically decreased, according to coinmarketcap.com (in which the Multigateway trading volume is NOT currently included). You can see the transaction history of the hack and subsequent partial repayment here: Bter’s NXT account. More information about this incident below. 

coinmarketcap 17082014Source: coinmarketcap.com

Hack of Bter’s main account

As already mentioned Bter’s main NXT account was hacked on the 15th August. You can see part of the negotiation in the NXT blockchain. In Bter’s last update (17 August) they confirm the receipt so far of 43m Nxt and that they are working to recover the 8m Nxt which is still missing. Surprisingly this incident didn’t affect the NXT price in a big way – at the time of writing, the market price at Multigateway is around 6700 satoshis, even higher than before the hack. More importantly, the end result of all this doesn’t include a hacker’s account with 51m NXT in it and the continuing downward pressure on the NXT price which that would have inevitably meant.

What’s going on in the Asset Exchange?

MGW: The asset representing the Multigateway has seen a huge rise over the past few days.  The price increased from around 4 NXT per share to more than 10 NXT! An explanation for this price rocket is definitely Bter’s hack, which shows the downsides of centralized exchanges. As a second result of the hack the volume traded on the Multigateway increased a lot – in the last 30 days 8’354’746 NXT were traded, 1’820’136 NXT in just the last 24 hours!

Fuzon: A fund which holds crypto currencies as long-term investments. The fund is managed by whale who, although still quite new to the Nxt community, is well known in the Bitcoin as well as the Ripple communities. More information about the offering can be found in the announcement thread. Note that the asset is already being traded on Poloniex. For live updates monitor fuzon’s twitter account where you will find details about new investments.

That’s it for another week! We are looking forward to your feedback and suggestions!

This market report is for general information and news purposes only. It does not take into account the reader’s personal circumstances, objectives or attitude towards risk. It is not (and is not intended to be) any form of advice, recommendation, representation, or endorsement by the author or the web site owner and should not be relied upon when making (or refraining from making) any investment decision.

NXT Market Report: 11 August 2014

Market Cap

Welcome to my second market report. First, let’s have a look at today’s market capitalizations. Since the last report Nxt has decreased in price by 14.35% on a steady volume of around USD 100’000. In the past few hours the volume reached a peak of USD 170’000 – a possible explanation is the release of the NRS v1.2.3 in which the Digital Goods Store is included. We are looking forward to block 213’000 when the release is scheduled to take place!

coinmarketcap 110814Source: coinmarketcap.com

Lee’s resignation from TXTCoinsNow

In my last market report I wrote about the outstanding progress being made by TXTCoinsNow . Unfortunately, since then (on 4th August), Lee Gibson Grant had to announce his termination of service with TXTCoinsNow – see the full announcement here. It became apparent that Lee had issued the TXTCoinsNow asset without the prior knowledge or approval of TXTCoinsNow’s CEO Thomas Mahoney and therefore the asset did not in fact constitute ownership of any share of the company. Furthermore the capital raised through the asset issuance was mainly used by Lee to promote Nxt at conferences or similiar events and only a small amount was paid to Thomas Mahoney and TXTCoinsNow. Notwithstanding this unfortunate incident Lee deserves a lot of praise for his energy, enterprise and commitment to NXT and, looking to the future, I am sure that having learned an important lesson, Lee will continue making a valuable contribution to the ongoing development and widespread adoption of NXT.

For an update on some of the latest developments in NXT as well as an interview with Thomas Mahoney (starting at 9:30 mins) watch the NXT Community & Development Update #16. 

 

Troubles at bter followed by a price drop

Last Saturday, (9th August) Bter had issues with its order book. Different people reported that there weren’t any buy orders displayed or even that there were empty order books on both sides. As a consequence the trading moved from Bter especially to Cryptsy with a hit in price down to about 6000 satoshis. This was probably the result of would-be-Bter sellers who switched to Cryptsy and other exchanges with far lower trading volume. As soon as Bter was back to running normally the price corrected but not as much as on the other exchanges. The net result was a hit in price of 6 to 7%.

What’s going on in the Asset Exchange?

Coinomat1: The second asset of coinomat is still paying its weekly dividend as well as continuously increasing their average daily revenue of transactions fees. Please note that yesterday (10th August) sharkfund0, an investment fund managed by jl777, invested over 520k Nxt in this asset. You can follow sharkfund0’s investments here.

MPFiatGate: On the 26th of July 2014, the MPFiatGate asset was issued – see their announcement thread for all details. The IPO represents 10% of the company’s net profit, therefore 10% of the monthly net profit will be distributed among the investors. The dividends are paid at the end of the month – the July dividend was 8.3% which equals a ROI of 100%!

That’s it for another week! We are looking forward to your feedback and suggestions!

This market report is for general information and news purposes only. It does not take into account the reader’s personal circumstances, objectives or attitude towards risk. It is not (and is not intended to be) any form of advice, recommendation, representation, or endorsement by the author or the web site owner and should not be relied upon when making (or refraining from making) any investment decision.

NXT Market Report: 29 July 2014

Market Cap

Welcome to today’s market report. My nxtforum.org name is KarlKarlsson and I will be writing these reports weekly. I have been working full time in the financial sector in Switzerland for some years now as a market analyst. I started watching the crypto markets in late 2013, found NXT in January and have since made it the particular focus of my attention.

coinmarketcap 29714 Source: coinmarketcap.com

400K sell walls eaten

After the new highs at the beginning of June with huge volumes being traded on all exchanges (up to 2m USD) the market has now calmed down a lot.

Despite some very interesting progress being made, especially the launch of jl777hodl1 on Poloniex and the launch of the Multigateway on the maninnet2, the consequent price rise that might have been expected never materialised, rather we have been seeing a steady decrease. Possible reasons include the scam suffered by kLee (following which the price of Nxt dropped to a low of around 5000 satoshis) and the hype produced by different people in connection with PayExpo, including John from Cointropolis.

What’s also interesting is the seeming inexplicable low trading volume over the last 2 weeks or so. Hopefully, however, the market will be inspired by the upcoming release of NRS Version 1.2 and in particular by the Digital Goods Store which is to be included in it.

In the last few days big sell walls – around 400k Nxt per order – suddenly appeared and were just as quickly snapped up by equally large buy orders. This happened once a day for about three days in a row. We can only speculate about the significance of these trades. There are rumors some whale is currently in the process of dumping all his Nxt.

What do you think?

Where the money was made

I want to mention two assets which have been in the spotlight over the past few days.

jl777hodl is a long term investment asset which is designed to include portions of ‘almost all’ the assets issued by jl777; it currently holds more than 20 of them.  jl777hodl has recently been launched on the Poloniex exchange. A huge step forward if we think about the advantage this offers us: a gateway to the Asset Exchange without having to buy Nxt! As a result the price of jl777hodl has already more than doubled.

Secondly I want to throw a look at TXTCoinNowThis is a unique payment system based on Nxt technology, which allows you to transfer money directly between mobile devices (also old school mobile phones), online as well as offline. On 24th July, Lee’s asset paid out its second reward: 3.06 Nxt per share which was approximately 8.1% of the asset price on that day. Furthermore TXTCoinNow’s asset price increased by around 100% in July.

Any questions, suggestions, improvements? Give us your feedback!

Footnotes:

1. For more information, visit: http://www.nxtreporting.com/ or https://trade.secureae.com/#6932037131189568014

2. In order to use Multigateway, you need the Multigateway Lite Extension in your Nxt Client. Currently, the software is in beta stage. For more information, visit: http://multigateway.com/

Disclaimer: The author is a TXTCoinNow investor. 

This market report is for general information and news purposes only. It does not take into account the reader’s personal circumstances, objectives or attitude towards risk. It is not (and is not intended to be) any form of advice, recommendation, representation, or endorsement by the author or the web site owner and should not be relied upon when making (or refraining from making) any investment decision.

NXT Market Report 150514

By lightspeed.

Nxt marked report

May 15th 2014: 14:00 UTC – Interim Report.

Battering Ram Round 3

**************************************************************************

Current market depth (BTER):

Bids: 1.3 Million NXT
Asks: 0.65 Million NXT

Source: Bitcoinwisdom.

Reach on BTER:

10,000 NXT = 7598 Satoshis
50,000 NXT = 7598
100,000 NXT = 7599
200,000 NXT = 7850
500,000 NXT = 8000

Today’s 500,000 cashout does not move the price significantly.

After a fairly brisk couple of days with moments of very high volume trading not seen for a while, we’ve bounced off the 7500 battle line a couple of times and recoiled back down to about 6900 as expected. So far, there have effectively been 2 large battering rams deployed – one during late Friday trading which briefly wiped the order book out up to 8000 Satoshis and then another rally during Tuesday / Wednesday which again ran out of steam at 7500.

However, ground refuelling appears to be complete and we’re back on the runway ready for another go at it.

This time, there is some cause for cautious optimism that the buyers might make it through the 7500-8000 resistance levels as the market is looking slightly more in their favour:

[1] – notice today’s market depth figures. For the first time, there is enough buy liquidity on the books to allow major cashouts while only moving the price barely 5 satoshis. Despite this there have been as yet no takers during the preparation of today’s commentary

[2] – we’re starting from a slightly higher level than the last attempts on Friday and Monday

[3] – sellers appear to have had some of the stuffing knocked out of them during the last 3 days and have pulled back slightly. Only 630,000 is left on the order book  below 8000. This is borne out by moving average convergeance indications which show that sentiment towards the downside is slowing and upside momentum is spooling up its engines.

In addition to market technicals, believe it or not there may have been a few green lights given by the stars:

[4] – the timing for this (potential) rally could not be better. NXT has arrived at the 7500 coalface just as the atlantic sunrise appears over the New York horizon. This is always a good time of the day for NXT. Panicky US traders like to go straight from their beds to their PC’s to check if precious holdings have withered and dump the remaining payload to mitigate any overnight damage. The discovery that the plants are alive and well generally propels the “ham & eggs” to a higher priority peg than any late profit taking.

[5] – there is starting to be a similar turnaround in sentiment for the Bitcoin landscape. Resistance has repeatedly held for the last few weeks and consideration is being given to a new breakout over June / July. This is very early days and things can go either way, but often negative sentiment in the bitcoin space can kill off any upwards movement amongst the alts

If in fact if today’s cautious optimism turns out to be justified, the next question will be what kind of rally is this ? To answer this, we can consider 3 general types of rally in the crypto-alts market.

a) – feverish price changes having little or no basis in the currency fundamentals and based largely on an increase in media buzz around the coin (often referred to colloquially as “pump and dumps”)

b) – temporary price changes based on fundamentals, such as new wallets, interest from merchants or new technological features. There is an initial “spike” in price followed by a slow decay thereafter, often right back down to the starting level

c) – long term valuation revisions which persist well past their point of initiation

So far, since January, NXT has experienced mainly type (b) price revisions. These can be easily correlated to various developmental phases in the history of the NXT network or technology features. Type c) has remained largely elusive, however the market has now revisited the 7000 level enough times that we might begin to consider the possibility. That makes the next few weeks of price evolution probably the most important in the history of the asset.

Top up your teapots and refill your cheese and olive bowls for round 3 !

Donations to lightspeed / Nxt Market Report: Nxt acc. 13411915496268579987

Original post on nextcoin.org forum:
https://nextcoin.org/index.php?action=post;quote=43934;topic=4467.90

NXT Market Report 120514

May 12th 2014: 22:00 UTC – by lightspeed

Interim Report

Battle Lines Drawn @ 7500

**************************************************************************

Current market depth (BTER):

Bids: 2.4 Million NXT
Asks: 0.6 Million NXT

Source: Bitcoinwisdom. (NOTE: Altcoincharts and BCW do not agree at the moment, however the latter source appears unserviceable for NXT market depth)

Reach on BTER:

10,000 NXT = 7290 Satoshis
50,000 NXT = 7499
100,000 NXT = 7500
200,000 NXT = 7500
500,000 NXT = 8000

This evening’s 500,000 cashout takes us to 6725.

Prognosis: We appear to have reached the end of the “cool-off” period and the order book is bubbling again. The last 24 hours has seen NXT form the 3rd largest market on BTER after BTC and Doge with a trading volume of approximately 140 BTC over the day.

It’s a game of minnows and whales with little in between, however the whales are coming from both directions as today’s market depth shows. Despite the price rise since the last report we now have the half million buy available on the order book, so once again large holders are availing themselves of the new found liquidity in the market.

Battle lines appear to be drawn around the 7500 to 8000 Satoshi region and if the market manages to get to that level with sufficient liquidity then we may see some interesting action for a while.

Moving averages and their derivative indicators are still completing their bearish cycles with the shorter term ones starting to diverge gently to the upside. So what is suggested is:

[1] – a gentle rise to possibly 7400 or 7500

[2] – either a bounce-off back to 7000+ or a steady high volume exchange starting around 7500

8000 is still well over the horizon since it’s the other side of the 7500 battleground which may be bloody. Of course if sell walls are pulled then we could be spared the grey hairs, but that will only happen if the market gains confidence and possibly depends more on product fundamentals and media perception than charts.

As always, health warnings apply and with the small spreads available right now, attempts at accumulation are not recommended for the faint of heart or pocket, however some tuna sandwiches and your beverage of choice may enhance the spectacle.

Happy trading !

Postscript: There is desert today. Not directly related to NXT, however Bitcoin is the reserve currency in which all other alts are traded so I trust readers will agree that what’s significant for Bitcoin is significant for everyone else 

PPS: As background, long range convergeance-divergeance rate charts for Bitcoin are beginning to cross over with the 3-day having just done so for the first time since December. The very longest and most unambiguous is projected to turn around during June.

Donations to lightspeed / Nxt Market Report: Nxt acc. 13411915496268579987

Original post on nextcoin.org forum:
https://nextcoin.org/index.php/topic,4467.msg43878.html#msg43878

NXT Market Report 100414

May 10th 2014: 12:00 UTC –

Interim Report.

Cool Off Period (Hold your fire)

**************************************************************************

Current market depth (BTER):

Bids: 1.4 Million NXT
Asks: 0.5 Million NXT

Source: Bitcoinwisdom

Current market depth (Cryptsy):

Bids: 0.19 Million NXT
Asks: 0.035 Million NXT

Source: cryptocoincharts

Reach on BTER at the moment:

10,000 NXT = 6998 Satoshis
50,000 NXT = 7176
100,000 NXT = 7192
200,000 NXT = 7590 (4998)
500,000 NXT = Not available

This evening’s 500,000 cashout takes us to 6500.

Prognosis: We are in a cool-off period in the uptrend. This may last between a few hours to a couple of days during which indications suggest that we might settle in the 6000 to 7000 satoshi range for a rest. If profit taking by NxT speculators is excessive we may retest the 5000 resistance at the odd candle bottom. The 30 minute MACD (which for NXT currently has between a 6 and 12 hour cycle) just pushed slightly wider to the downside on an already divergent trend (to the downside) which suggests an incoming correction.

However, with NXT being a very slow and low liquidity market, it’s unlikely that the correction will have enough of a spread to present opportunities for accumulation to those other than the most experienced traders (That means more experienced than your current market commentator).

4 Hour Chart (Each candle is 4 hours wide)

Convergeance-divergeance moving average indicators agree that we may be not heading up as fast. At the worst case, a correction is suggested but like the high cirrus clouds warning of a distant warm front, it may be a few hours away:

The correction may be anywhere between a slowing of the uptrend to a temporary down trend (expected) before stabilising possible Sunday or Monday.

4hr MACD Histogram

HEALTH WARNING
lightspeed is an amateur trader –  the purpose of this commentary is to generate discourse with what I’ve learned so far about NXT and trading to other “beginners”  If your a “pro” just make sure you take your own advice and not mine !!

Donations to lightspeed / Nxt Market Report: Nxt acc. 13411915496268579987

Original post on nextcoin.org forum:
https://nextcoin.org/index.php/topic,4467.msg43798.html#msg43798
+ nxtforum.org: https://nxtforum.org/trading-exchanges/nxt-market-report/msg18097/

Nxt Market Report 280414

By lightspeed

April 28th 2014: 18:00 UTC
“I’M A STAKEHOLDER GET ME OUT OF HERE” (BULLISH VERSION)
******************************************************************************
Just a brief update to draw attention to what looks like being a bit of a turnaround in the steady bleed on the markets.

Current market depth (BTER):

Bids: 0.296 Million NXT
Asks: 0.242 Million NXT

Reach on BTER at the moment: (Averages in brackets)

10,000 NXT = 4900 Satoshis
50,000 NXT = 5295
100,000 NXT = 5480
200,000 NXT = 5590
500,000 NXT = Not available

Today’s 500.000 cashout would take us to 4217 Satoshis, a drop of only 200 Sats at the time of writing.

******************************************************************************

“I’M A STAKEHOLDER
GET ME OUT OF HERE”

During the last few days, despite the favourable fundamentals of this market at the moment, we’ve seen a significant number of big 5 and 6-figure cashouts.

The question arises of why ? If there’s so much good news and activity going around, why is there so much cashing out going on and of such large amounts ? Who would sell a quarter of a million NxT in a single sale at rock bottom prices when we’re days away from new technology rollouts and major media coverage ?

The answer lies in the availability of market liquidity.

To most of us, the phenomenon of rich NxT stakeholders is spectator sport only.  On the face of it, it may seem an enviable position to be into one of those 7 figure balances where your calculator tells you you’re sitting on a small fortune worth x-hundred’s of Bitcoin. However, try realising the amount on the display panel and that trip on Richard Branson’s spaceplane suddenly fades back into dreamland.

Unfortunately your calculator is blissfully ignorant of the ‘real world’ and mistakenly assumes a 100% liquid market. It doesn’t need buyers and can cashout your full stash at the price of the last trade. On the other hand, you do and cannot.

Market liquidity is gold dust to a large holder trying to realise their holdings. As the price rises, liquidity becomes more sparse. A bit like climbing a mountain and breathing the rarefied air near the summit. There’s simply less of it. What that means is that anyone waiting for the price to rise before cashing out will be constantly disappointed because they can’t have both – price and liquidity.

This must have become a frustrating process for some stakeholders over the last few months. They haven’t “crashed the market” trying to exit as so many predicted would happen early on in NxT’s existence. The reason for that is in no small part due to the exciting ongoing development work that’s being done in the currency. At the same time, they would have to crash the price a little bit if they wanted to realise a 6 figure sum when the market is at its more elevated cruising levels. It appears that this is not an attractive option for NxT stakeholders – at least not as much as being able to realise the amount of Bitcoin that their calculator told them they were “due”, even if the price is low.

However, during the last week or so, 2 things have converged to give them a break and at the same time possibly encourage a new round of healthy distribution of the currency:

[1] – the price has dropped to a level where there is substantial liquidity available to support large cashouts

[2] – we are entering a phase of “bullish” fundamentals that may be starting to feed that liquidity more sustainably

The “bullish fundamentals” amount to increasing good media coverage in the cryptocurrency blogs, forums and press due to the imminent launch of the NxT asset exchange as well as new 3rd party commercial initiatives being announced and alluded which capitalise on the new blockchain features.

Some large holders therefore, could be slightly more interested in liquidity than price which may explain much of the recent selling spree. Have a look at the 500,000 cashout reach in today’s market depth statistics – a sale of 500,000 NxT, (0.05% of the entire NxT money supply) only results in a 200 Satoshi price change. So finally, a large holder can actually realise what their calculator told them they owned without having to destroy the order book and the price with it. This is a very enticing prospect for them.

It is also reassuring for us “market-minions” (apologies to readers who may actually be the subject of todays report) because it shows that there is a price at which large amounts of liquidity become available. Over time, as distribution improves and assuming continued  development of fundamentals, this ‘threshold’ price should increase. It also shows that NxT’s little distribution “problem” may not be a problem at all and may actually be quite containable, albeit it will take a while for propagation to occur.

BUT…THERE’S A LIMIT

Once this ‘munching ground’ level was reached, 24 hour volume on BTER more than doubled, reaching a peak of about 1.5 Million NxT on Friday 25th April. What’s interesting now though is that suddenly, big sells appear to have slowed if not stopped altogether late this afternoon (Mon 28th). For the last couple of hours, Market Report has been watching 200,000 NXT’s worth of buy order at 4660 attract about as much interest as a glass of sour milk. Only this morning that would have been gobbled within 10 minutes. Furthermore, trading analysis tools now report the 500,000 buy-in as “out of order book”.

These anecdotal observations appear to agree with moving average analysis – the 12 hour MACD histogram today put in its first green block since April 20th, the 4 Hour pushed wide again to the upside after threatening to crossover in nosedive fashion yesterday. The 1 hour crossed decisively over in the last couple of hours, also to the upside.

What does this tell us about the “big holders” (at least the short-term speculative ones) and the “will they dump on us” questions ? The past 48 hours of activity have revealed 3 potential clues with regards to ‘whale’ trading tactics  in this market:

[1] – there is a ‘base munching level” (BML) at which they will generally sell in the absence of any background “excitement”. As long as fundamentals are reasonably buoyant, they would rather cash out at high liquidity level than a high price level (where they have to push the price down) because they want to carry their trade out at market price, not below

[2] – if any “background excitement” does appear, they will cease munching and allow the price to rise and liquidity to build, possibly setting in a new high for the ‘munching level”

[3] – the longer this cycle repeats, the more their ‘munching’ ability is diminished. There are 2 factors driving this:

a) – progressively depleted funds due to short term speculative investors realising their gains
b) – for those that remain, increasing confidence in the asset and therefore propensity to hold long term

So we may have seen a bottom for now at precisely 4000 Satoshis this afternoon. From here, all else being equal, favourable media coverage is only going to slowly increase towards the AE launch date. (Of course “all else” is never equal and traders should always be on their guard and inform themselves as fully as possible).

In the meantime, lets see how fresh that order book gets in the next 48 hours.

TODAY’S SPECIAL HEALTH WARNING

Although today’s report is fairly bullish, please always be careful, stay as informed as you can and ultimately listen to your own instincts. NxT Market Report presents one view as a stimulous for thought and discussion. There are always valid alternative views that can be considered. According to current market depth, the price looks buyable at below 5000 Satoshis but NEVER throw money at markets in excitement whatever the price and only trade what you can afford to loose since cryptocurrency markets are inherently volatile and can turnaround quickly.

Also bear in mind – investment vehicles are not democracies but this works both ways. It means you can have just as much fun being part of the NxT project and watching / participating in its evolution with a stake of 1000 NxT as you can with 100,000 or 1 million.

Following those simple rules will ensure you generally experience..

…Happy trading !

Donations to lightspeed / Nxt Market Report: Nxt acc. 13411915496268579987

Original post on nextcoin.org forum:
https://nextcoin.org/index.php/topic,4467.msg43490.html#msg43490

 

Nxt Market Report 220414

By lightspeed

Current market depth (BTER):

Bids: 0.29 Million NXT
Asks: 0.24 Million NXT

Prognosis: April’s price profile has continued its slow bleed and we may now re-test the mid-march low of 4100. The month’s trading so far has been characterised by many small trades interspersed with some very large buy-ins which, in a few cases, moved the price a full 500 NxT in a single trade. In the absence of any other news, the current trend would be expected to continue, however, it’s the ‘any other news’ bit that will form the theme of this report.

Reach on BTER at the moment: (Averages in brackets)

10,000 NXT = 4800 (4799) Satoshis
50,000 NXT = 4900 (4877)
100,000 NXT = 4900 (4888)
200,000 NXT = 4897 (4998)
500,000 NXT = 5000 (4958)

Meanwhile, a 500,000 cashout right now would take us straight to 3000. So good liquidity on the buy side (there is currently someone waiting to get 255,000 offloaded @ 5000 Satoshis  ) but not so great if your checking out.

*************************************************************************

ENGINEERS vs ECONOMISTS
– and BLOCK 76000

Before reading on, I’d like readers to ask themselves this question: What does “Block 76000” in the NxT testnet blockchain mean to you ?

If the answer is ‘nothing’ then you’re possibly in the ‘economists’ trading category from the perspective of today’s report. If the answer is ‘something’ then you’re more likely in the engineer’s category. Hopefully, knowing which group you fall into will help you decide if you’ve over or under valued your investment and interpret the report accordingly.

If you ask an engineer for a description of an aeroplane, they’ll likely say something like “a flying machine”. On the other hand, if you ask an economist, they’re more likely to answer “an expensive asset”.

These two perspectives on the same object come from disciplines which are inherently independent and yet they form complimentary accounts such that without either, we don’t have the full picture as far as an investment proposal is concerned. It’s not enough for an airline to know that the ‘flying machine’ works and can get its customers to the correct location for sipping their ‘Bahama Mama’s’, they also have to know how much it will cost them.

Conversely, there’s not much point in knowing the price of something without also knowing what it is you’re buying. Imagine a supermarket where all the shelves only had prices and no products. You’d need a strategy to infer the nature of the product from its price. So maybe you only buy the expensive stuff because that must be the ‘good stuff’. You then checkout only to find you’ll be feeding your family of 5 this month on a couple of organic smoked salmon, 15 tins of fois gras and a few bottles of champagne followed by 3 weeks of starvation.

When the engineer’s and the economist’s views are in balance, we have a correct valuation for the asset. In other words, the market has full information about both the cost and potential revenue of that asset. When these views are out of balance, we have a miss-valuation. i.e. the market is trading without full knowledge of the asset’s properties and our view is distorted in either the economist’s or the engineer’s direction. (We are either looking at the price only without knowing what the asset is or we are only looking at the function without knowing the price).

WHAT HAS THIS GOT TO DO WITH NxT ?

During the last few weeks, some strange trading patterns have appeared. Firstly there is a background ‘noise’ of very slow price decay over lots of sub-10,000 NxT trades. However, superimposed on this are 2 distinct categories of trade observed having very different behaviours:

[1] – some very large, almost desperate looking, buy-ins which temporarily pushed the price up by about a months worth of ‘background noise’ at a time

[2] – some very large and equally desperate looking cashouts

TESTNET BLOCK 76000

As a background to all this, there is some industrious and highly strategic activity going on by the developers of the NxT network services.

About an hour prior to the writing of this report, we passed block 76000 on “testnet” (NxT’s auxiliary ‘offline’ blockchain used for testing new technology). This is possibly the most significant single event to have occurred in the evolution of the network since launch because it signifies the blockchain’s asset publishing service going live for testing purposes. For this to have been achieved, many challenges have been faced and solved by the developers including the implementation of new server side and client side technologies which will now start undergoing some heavy testing. Block 76000 therefore probably represents the point at which NxT reached its highest ever utility value as a technology and whoever the trader was that cashed out 11553 NxT right at that point at a multi-week low price of 4322 deserves my thanks since it was them that provided the inspiration for this week’s report.

On the face of it, therefore, the 2 categories of trading above would appear to follow the distinct and contrary profiles of the “2 sides” of this coin:

a) – engineer’s category: traders who are following its technical evolution and ‘buying in’ as it attains an ever higher utility value

b) – economist’s category: traders who are following its price evolution only and ‘selling out’ based on the decaying market valuation

THE PARALLAX VIEW (Apologies to Warren Beaty)

As we observed earlier, both the engineer’s and economist’s view are relevant and in fact essential in forming an appropriate valuation. But when one is out of balance with the other, we either have airliners with no price tag or supermarket shelves with no product description. In the case of NxT’s valuation, Market Report notes that one of these views is plastered over every cryptocurrency exchange, graph, ticker and forum on the internet, while the other is buried away where only interested parties care to roam (and still have to do some digging at that). In fact, you have to go to an obscure forum, 11th down from the News and Announcements section on nxtforum.org in the ‘Technical Discussion’ section called ‘Testnet’ to find this:

This major imbalance in the two sources of information in the view of your humble commentator is likely to cause a distortion in the price valuation of the NxT technology – a kind of ‘parallax’ which may account for the bi-directional spikey trading behaviour we’re seeing. (Exemplified by our friend who dumped their 11553 NxT at the precise moment of highest value and lowest price).

Finally, just in case you haven’t yet guessed by now which is the under-stated view then here’s some stuff I’d like to sell you ! 

Usual health warnings apply. In the meantime, as always..

Happy trading !

p.s. countdown to the ‘live network’ asset exchange launching is here: http://www.nxtcommunity.org/

advarsel

HEALTH WARNING
lightspeed is an amateur trader – in fact barely past “beginner”. The purpose of this commentary is to generate discourse with what I’ve learned so far about NXT and trading to other “beginners” If your a “pro” just make sure you take your own advice and not mine !!

Donations to lightspeed / Nxt Marked Report: Nxt acc. 13411915496268579987

Original post on nextcoin.org forum:
https://nextcoin.org/index.php/topic,4467.msg43366.html#msg43366

Nxt Market Report 080414

By lightspeed.

Market Depth (BTER):

Bids: 0.24 Million NXT
Asks: 0.28 Million NXT

Time for quick interim update as we pass the midpoint of ‘stability week’ as anticipated by last week’s report.

At the time of writing, the 4 hour MACD is just crossing over to the upside helped along by a brief gust of buys that rustled through the order book in the last hour taking out the low hanging fruit on the ask side to the tune of around 80k NXT at ~6240.

This has consolidated the week’s relaxed, undulating but regular pattern and is helping to bake in the 6000 level following the buffeting we got in the wake of the big bounce off the 5000 support.

With the longer range indicators having all made a fairly greased-on rendezvous with the horizontal plane, they are now in the hangar for the night and void of much useful signal. The 4 Hr however still offers some radar returns and the story they tell is one of gentle consolidation for the remainder of the week with a possible exploratory excursion to the upper reaches of the 6100 to 6500 range. That’s about as ambitious as it looks like getting folks but no bad thing if it means an equal shoring up of the support.

The other benefit you get from this state of affairs is good liquidity in both directions, so traders looking to exploit the small variations that do appear will now have more chance to do so than they did with the big spreads we had of the previous 2 weeks.

Reaches for tonight are as follows (Averages in brackets):

Buying :

10,000 NXT = 6247 (6245) Satoshis
50,000 NXT = 6297 (6261)
100,000 NXT = 6300 (6280)
200,000 NXT = 6555 (6375)
500,000 NXT = 6887 (6596)

A 500,000 cashout tonight would take us down 600 to 5560 while a 500,000 buy would take us up 700, so order book is slightly firmer on the buys around current price.

Bitcoin meanwhile is doing its bouncing bomb impersonation and it’s anyone’s guess if it’s going to bust any dams in the next few days. Luckily we are receiving the protection of a de-coupled market for now so lets be happy for small mercies 

Happy trading !

Donations to lightspeed / Nxt Marked Report: Nxt acc. 13411915496268579987

Original post on nextcoin.org forum:
https://nextcoin.org/index.php/topic,4467.msg42837.html#msg42837