May 15th 2014: 14:00 UTC – Interim Report.
Battering Ram Round 3
Current market depth (BTER):
Bids: 1.3 Million NXT
Asks: 0.65 Million NXT
Reach on BTER:
10,000 NXT = 7598 Satoshis
50,000 NXT = 7598
100,000 NXT = 7599
200,000 NXT = 7850
500,000 NXT = 8000
Today’s 500,000 cashout does not move the price significantly.
After a fairly brisk couple of days with moments of very high volume trading not seen for a while, we’ve bounced off the 7500 battle line a couple of times and recoiled back down to about 6900 as expected. So far, there have effectively been 2 large battering rams deployed – one during late Friday trading which briefly wiped the order book out up to 8000 Satoshis and then another rally during Tuesday / Wednesday which again ran out of steam at 7500.
However, ground refuelling appears to be complete and we’re back on the runway ready for another go at it.
This time, there is some cause for cautious optimism that the buyers might make it through the 7500-8000 resistance levels as the market is looking slightly more in their favour:
 – notice today’s market depth figures. For the first time, there is enough buy liquidity on the books to allow major cashouts while only moving the price barely 5 satoshis. Despite this there have been as yet no takers during the preparation of today’s commentary
 – we’re starting from a slightly higher level than the last attempts on Friday and Monday
 – sellers appear to have had some of the stuffing knocked out of them during the last 3 days and have pulled back slightly. Only 630,000 is left on the order book below 8000. This is borne out by moving average convergeance indications which show that sentiment towards the downside is slowing and upside momentum is spooling up its engines.
In addition to market technicals, believe it or not there may have been a few green lights given by the stars:
 – the timing for this (potential) rally could not be better. NXT has arrived at the 7500 coalface just as the atlantic sunrise appears over the New York horizon. This is always a good time of the day for NXT. Panicky US traders like to go straight from their beds to their PC’s to check if precious holdings have withered and dump the remaining payload to mitigate any overnight damage. The discovery that the plants are alive and well generally propels the “ham & eggs” to a higher priority peg than any late profit taking.
 – there is starting to be a similar turnaround in sentiment for the Bitcoin landscape. Resistance has repeatedly held for the last few weeks and consideration is being given to a new breakout over June / July. This is very early days and things can go either way, but often negative sentiment in the bitcoin space can kill off any upwards movement amongst the alts
If in fact if today’s cautious optimism turns out to be justified, the next question will be what kind of rally is this ? To answer this, we can consider 3 general types of rally in the crypto-alts market.
a) – feverish price changes having little or no basis in the currency fundamentals and based largely on an increase in media buzz around the coin (often referred to colloquially as “pump and dumps”)
b) – temporary price changes based on fundamentals, such as new wallets, interest from merchants or new technological features. There is an initial “spike” in price followed by a slow decay thereafter, often right back down to the starting level
c) – long term valuation revisions which persist well past their point of initiation
So far, since January, NXT has experienced mainly type (b) price revisions. These can be easily correlated to various developmental phases in the history of the NXT network or technology features. Type c) has remained largely elusive, however the market has now revisited the 7000 level enough times that we might begin to consider the possibility. That makes the next few weeks of price evolution probably the most important in the history of the asset.
Top up your teapots and refill your cheese and olive bowls for round 3 !
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Original post on nextcoin.org forum: